On 20 December 2024, Macao will have a new leader at its helm. After months of speculation over his candidacy, incumbent chief executive (CE) Ho Iat Seng announced last Wednesday that he would not pursue a final second term in office, citing health reasons.
Ho’s decision opens the door for a fresh face to lead Macao for the next five years. With the nomination period for candidates scheduled between 29 August and 12 September and the election itself due to take place on 13 October, a number of names have already been floated as potential contenders. None, however, have quite gained as much traction as that of Macao’s chief justice, Sam Hou Fai.
[See more: Here’s what to know about Sam Hou Fai, who could be running in Macao’s CE election]
The president of the Court of Final Appeal made it clear publicly last Thursday that he was “considering” joining the race, explaining that he had “always had a desire to serve Macao.” This Monday, he appeared to have all but declared his candidacy when he resigned from his judicial posts, with the decision taking effect on 28 August.
What are Sam Hou Fai’s chances of becoming CE?
While it remains to be seen if Sam will attempt to run for what he describes as a “noble position,” the 62-year-old judge does have a very real chance of winning office, according to Sonny Lo Shiu-Hing, a veteran commentator of Macao and Hong Kong politics.
Lo notes that Sam’s track record, including his rich legal experience in Macao, mainland China and Portugal, as well as his service with the Macao Judiciary since 1999, will easily help him secure the 66 nomination votes needed to become a candidate.
“I think he will be a hard contender [to beat] for the position of the CE,” the expert says.
In what direction might Sam take Macao?
Ieong Meng U, an assistant professor with the University of Macau’s (UM) department of government and public administration, says that he does not expect Sam to deviate from the status quo, noting that “who becomes CE is not important because the rule of game is like this, you take the central [government’s] order as your priority.”
Lo offers a similar view, stating that he does not expect major legislative or constitutional developments to arise during the next CE’s tenure, as “the politics of Macao have been traditionally underdeveloped and relatively frozen.”
[See more: New CE will maintain ‘status quo’ for gambling, say analysts]
He adds that there will be “significant continuities” between Ho and his successor, with national security, as well as economic recovery and the betterment of people’s livelihoods continuing to be the two major areas of focus for the incoming administration.
Don’t expect the incoming CE to make any major policy shifts with respect to the casinos either, as Ieong points out that the industry is “too important for Macao.” Lo is in agreement, noting that “casino capitalism will continue in Macao, but that kind of casino capitalism is continuing to be diluted by more social welfarism and also having more economic diversification through the integration with Hengqin.”
[See more: CE election: Sam Hou Fai has ‘the desire to serve Macao’]
Indeed, Macao’s economic diversification, especially in terms of its integration with Hengqin, is expected to carry over as a key policy agenda, as Lo points out that it is considered to be a matter of high priority for not only Macao authorities, but also the Guangdong and central governments.
How might Sam deal with national security?
Politically speaking, Ieong says that if Sam were to take office, he would in all likelihood be a conservative leader who is “very careful about essential order.” As evidence, the academic cites case 94/2019, which involved an appeal by local protesters Man Tou and Jason Chao Teng Hei to overturn the public security police’s ban on their rally against police brutality during the 2019 the 2020 Hong Kong protests.
Sam and the other judges of the court of final appeal, who oversaw the case, ultimately upheld the ban, citing a number of reasons, including that the staging of the protest in Tap Seac Square would constitute interference with Hong Kong’s internal affairs in contravention of Macao’s mini constitution (Basic Law). In addition, they argued that Hong Kong authorities had not recognised the police’s use of undue violence against the protesters.
[See more: Macao Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng is not running for reelection]
However, Lo is not convinced that the 2019 case is a “good indicator” that Sam will be a hardliner with respect to national security. On the contrary, the political commentator believes that Sam “would do a good job in protecting and safeguarding national security of China, on the one hand, and also balancing the needs of several liberties in Macao.”
Should residents be worried about Sam’s lack of economic experience?
Despite his strong legal credentials, Sam lacks experience in other critical areas that are seen as critical to being Macao’s leader. “He has no experience on economic and also regional cooperation or even…[in areas such as] exporting China’s soft power,” Ieong says. “I doubt whether he is capable enough to fulfil the central order.”
[See more: Nominations of candidates for the Chief Executive election begin on 29 August]
As a result of this, Lo explains that if Sam does take on the top job, he may very well have to depend on cabinet members who can help him compensate for his lack of expertise in other non-judicial fields. “I think his economic experience has been relatively weak, so he will have to rely on the executive council members who may have more experience in economic and financial development,” he says. “Having said that, I’m confident that Mr. Sam will be able to govern Macao successfully with a batch of experienced economic advisors.”
