Consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for Macao’s six gaming operators hit HK$15.8 billion during the third quarter, representing an 8.2 percent increase from the previous year, according to CLSA estimates.
EBITDA followed quarterly GGR (gross gaming revenues) growth of 12.5 percent, with the market optimistic that the industry’s upward trajectory will continue into the final quarter of the year. With analysts pencilling in between 12 and 15 percent GGR growth for the period, gaming revenues could cross the 228 billion patacas mark in early December – exceeding the revised budget target set in June.
Resilient underlying demand is driving sector optimism even though year-to-date earnings are still below their 2019 comparables, notes CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang, in comments sent to Macao News. Quarterly results include weather disruptions caused by September’s Typhoon Ragas, which closed operations for 33 hours before gaming activity staged a late month recovery prior to the calendar turning to October.
[See more: Three major takeaways to pull from the upcoming October gaming numbers]
Early fourth quarter figures support an upbeat outlook. September’s GGR pullback was offset by October’s better-than-expected 16 percent increase, though the two-month period still lost roughly 1.3 billion patacas from its original forecast, according to Macao News estimates. For November, CLSA is forecasting GGR to reach 20.5 billion patacas, representing an 11.4 percent increase from the previous year.
Positive sentiment stems from gaming revenues avoiding cyclical post-holiday dips, mirroring a similar pattern seen after Chinese New Year and the Labour Day holiday earlier this year. Players continued to gamble beyond the eight-day Golden Week period, as major sporting and entertainment events, notably the NBA China Games and the Jackson Wang concert, continued to draw crowds to the integrated resorts. Approximately 3.4 million visitors arrived in Macao in October, according to tourism officials who estimate that the mid-November Grand Prix attracted half a million tourists over the four-day event.
A month ahead of schedule
The GGR recovery is particularly meaningful, as concessionaires are attracting more mass players to offset the decline in higher betting VIP gamers. While the mass segment is considered a higher margin business due to lower junket and commission related fees, rising operating and variable marketing expenses reduce those savings, especially since a greater volume of mass market customers are required to fully compensate for the player shift.
For 2026, the proposed budget forecasts GGR to reach 236 billion patacas, representing a modest 3.5 percent climb from the 2025 budget estimate and about half what most sell-side analysts are predicting.
[See more: Macao forecasts 236 billion patacas in gaming revenue for 2026]
The budget proposal numbers follow the release of Macao’s third quarter GDP when the SAR expanded 8 percent, outpacing the national figure. CLSA’s industrial profitability index, a macroeconomic barometer signalling shifts in GGR activity, narrowed in September but remained above zero, suggesting a favourable market environment over the next six months. The broker is also forecasting a bullish outlook for the yuan, which has traditionally been an earnings tailwind despite causing currency headwinds for exporters.
