Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth forecast for October has been significantly reduced by JP Morgan, with the investment bank now anticipating an increase of just 3 to 6 per cent year-on-year, a sharp drop from its previous projection of over 11 per cent.
The bank’s report was cited in multiple casino industry outlets.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian noted on Tuesday that “golden week” numbers “were not so golden,” referring to the crucial October holiday period that typically sees a surge in mainland Chinese tourists, Macao’s primary visitor demographic.
This year’s holiday, officially observed from October 1 to 8, encompassed China’s National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, which fell on October 6.
Despite the lacklustre performance, the JP Morgan team characterised the results as a “temporary setback.” Potential contributing factors included weather-related disruptions on October 5 due to Typhoon Matmo and a “softer mass market” attributed to the Mid-Autumn Festival occurring on October 6 this year, as opposed to the September observances of previous years.
Another element highlighted by the brokerage was the absence of high-end players. Many instead attended the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix, held from October 3 to 5, a period that usually falls in September.
[See more: Macao records around 1.05 million visitors during first 7 days of golden week]
Looking ahead to the full fourth quarter, JP Morgan has adjusted its GGR growth expectation for the October to December 2025 period to 9 per cent year-on-year, down from an earlier estimate of 13 per cent.
The institution remarked that “easy comparisons kick in from December,” which is expected to accelerate industry GGR growth to “mid-teens” in December and “low teens” in the first quarter of 2026.
Furthermore, JP Morgan projected that the Macao casino sector’s third-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) would rise by 7 to 8 per cent year-on-year, and 1 to 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter.
Wynn Macau was identified by the analysts as likely the top performer for the quarter, achieving double-digit EBITDA growth quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, MGM China Holdings Ltd and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd’s Macau operations “likely saw sequential profit declines, with mid-single-digit EBITDA drops.”
Separately, brokerage CLSA stated in a Monday note that it anticipated the Macao casino sector’s third-quarter EBITDA to have grown by approximately 10 per cent year-on-year, reaching an estimated US$2.06 billion.
CLSA also estimated that Wynn Macau secured the largest GGR market share gain sequentially in the third quarter, reaching 13.5 per cent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the second quarter.This article was drafted by AI before being reviewed by an editor.