Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its 2025 forecast for Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to a 10 percent year-on-year increase, double its previous estimate of 5 percent, GGR Asia reports. The bank’s new full-year estimate sits at 248.96 billion patacas (US$30.79 billion) – significantly higher than the SAR government’s revised forecast of 228 billion patacas (US$27.36 billion).
Morgan Stanley also tripled its projected growth in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for the sector to 6 percent, up from 2 percent.
The bank’s revisions follow Macao casinos’ best monthly post-pandemic performance yet. July saw the six concessionaires earn a collective 22.12 billion patacas (US$2.73 billion) in GGR, representing a year-on-year increase of 19 percent. Morgan Stanley said the improved forecast reflected both June and July’s stellar performances after gaming’s sluggish start to the year.
[See more: Macao’s July GGR hits 22.12 billion patacas, rising 19 percent year-on-year]
Analysts attributed the outlook to stronger mainland visitation – up 25 percent year-on-year in the second quarter – driven by easier visa access, including multi-entry permits for Zhuhai residents and an expanded Individual Visit Scheme. Other factors were hugely popular concerts by the likes of Hong Kong Canto-pop star Jacky Cheung, an uptick in junkets, and the strengthening yuan, the bank noted.
Meanwhile, analysts at Seaport Research Partners, which also recently upped its 2025 GGR forecast, said July’s result “blows out expectations again” and predicted a healthy rise in August of 14.8 percent year-on-year.
“Re-acceleration of GGR growth is solidifying,” noted Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky on Sunday. He said that while trade tensions between the US and China remained “an overhang,” he expected a new trade deal would be reached soon – fortifying the mainland’s lacklustre consumer confidence and increasing their spend at Macao’s casinos.
