Even with low single-digit increases pencilled in for daily arrivals during October’s “golden week” break, the extended holiday period – which began on National Day – is well-positioned to deliver strong gross gaming revenue (GGR) for October. According to a sector report by CLSA published last Friday, the figure could reach 22.6 billion patacas (US$2.82 billion), or a 9 percent rise.
The estimate follows September’s 6 percent – a figure that came in below consensus expectations due in part to Typhoon Ragasa, which kept gamers sidelined for 33 hours. Favourable macroeconomic indicators along with a strengthening currency outlook for the Chinese yuan remain unchanged, however, and bode well for the gaming sector over the next six months, commented investment analyst Jeffrey Kiang to Macao News.
[See more: Macao’s casinos see a ‘golden week’ boost despite Typhoon Matmo]
Despite the typhoons, CLSA’s October forecast is enough to lift Macao’s GGR to 85.2 billion patacas (US$10.61 billion) since the beginning of July, marking an 11 percent increase over the same interval a year ago. The brokerage report also underscores attractive market valuations, with a forward EV/EBITDA multiple (the ratio of enterprise value to a company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) of 10.7 times, one-fifth below its long-term adjusted average of 13.9 times.
The upbeat picture stems from Macao’s robust tourism intake. More than 790,000 visitors arrived during the first five days of the eight-day golden week holiday, fuelling expectations that 1.2 million could ultimately enter the city. Kiang argues that if daily GGR for the rest of October matches the last nine days of September, adjusted for the typhoon-related closure, this month’s GGR could even expand by 12 percent and reach 23.3 billion patacas (US$2.9 billion).
Thailand’s slow recovery
Momentum in Macao’s tourism traffic and gaming revenues coincides with a marked decline in Chinese holiday seekers heading to Thailand, as a reduced number of travellers are choosing it as a destination this year. Over the first eight months of 2025, 1.4 million fewer visitors from China disembarked in the Land of Smiles, representing a drop of more than a third, according to data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand.
The sluggish rebound also corresponds with the current Thai government shelving its Entertainment Complex Bill, removing political support for a gaming sector analysts have estimated to be worth between US$10 billion and US$15 billion, valuing it as the world’s third largest market.
[See more: Thailand’s casino bill has been withdrawn amid political turmoil]
Several major operators in Macao have previously discussed plans to evaluate opportunities in Thailand, where each potential licence requires a minimum investment of 100 billion baht (US$3 billion). Back in March, Lawrence Ho, CEO of Melco Resorts and Entertainment, described Thailand’s emerging gambling market as “a generational opportunity that probably happens once every century,” reaffirming the prospects that are currently on hold.
Amid these shifting industry dynamics, the British Chamber of Commerce in Macao (BritCham) will host a timely conversation this Thursday, 9 October at the Artyzen Grand Lapa, featuring industry veteran Niall Murray, founder and chairman of Murray International Group, to discuss Macao’s evolving integrated resort landscape. More information can be found here.
