Casino industry analysts expect Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to climb around 13 percent year-on-year in October and reach more than 23 billion patacas (US$2.87 billion). If that happens, it will be the Macao casinos’ strongest collective monthly performance since 2019, Inside Asian Gaming (IAG) reports.
Analysts have predicted that a combination of strong demand during the National Day break, further relaxation of mainland travel and visa rules, plus a busy events calendar, will drive growth this month. Their upbeat projections followed a temporary dip in September, when Super Typhoon Ragasa forced casino closures and upended travel across the region.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported September GGR at 18.3 billion patacas, slightly below market expectations.
JP Morgan analysts cited by IAG estimated that Ragasa knocked off about 10 percent of potential revenue – the equivalent of about three weekdays of casino operations. They said that without the typhoon, September would likely have delivered double-digit growth.
[See more: Macao’s satellite casinos are shutting early as staff leave]
Despite the setback, third-quarter GGR reached a post-pandemic high of 62.2 billion patacas, up 13 percent year-on-year. The analysts believed October would continue that momentum, particularly during the National Day “golden week” holiday that begins on 1 October on the Chinese mainland and lasts for 8 days.
“For the first five days [of October], we expect daily GGR to exceed $1.1 billion patacas, potentially matching the pre-Covid golden week levels of $1.16 billion patacas,” they wrote. The analysts added that tail-end demand should be “longer and stronger” this year.
Seaport Research Partners offered a similar forecast, projecting 13 percent annual growth in October. However, the firm cautioned that further typhoon disruptions could dampen results.
Senior Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky, quoted by IAG, said growth would likely be driven by increased marketing, continued ease of money outflows, robust travel permit issuance and events. A new trade deal between China and the US, along with improved consumer confidence in the mainland, would further boost GGR, he noted.
Seaport expects Macao’s full-year GGR to climb 8.4 percent in 2025, supported by a strong fourth quarter, when revenues are forecast to increase 12.4 percent year-on-year.
