Macao’s gross gaming revenues (GGR) rose 14.8 percent year-on-year in December, coming in at 20.89 billion patacas (US$2.60 billion) for the final month of 2025, official figures show. For the year in total, a high-performing second half saw GGR advance 9.1 percent to reach 247.40 billion patacas (US$30.83 billion). That’s 84.6 percent of pre-pandemic 2019’s tally.
The tally beat the SAR’s government’s revised forecast by about three weeks, and topped the original target of 240 billion patacas. That initial goal was considered unobtainable back in June, due to casinos’ weaker than expected first-half and unstable global conditions – leading the government to trim it to just 228 billion patacas.
Looking ahead, a low base is expected to support double‑digit GGR growth rates until the late spring. While growth is expected to normalise around the summer, investment house Jefferies sees the current trajectory as an opportunity for investors to assess the current market dynamics. It added that when slower play does materialise in the second half, the gaming momentum should remain above the government’s proposed forecast of 236 billion patacas for 2026.
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Demand recovery, but costs remain a concern
Gaming revenue jumped more than 16 percent for the fourth quarter, setting the tempo for when the six integrated resorts are set to publish both their annual results in the weeks ahead. While demand recovery remains intact, industry watchers will be focused on costs. In an early December sector note, Morgan Stanley projected fourth quarter operating expenditure to rise between three and 19 percent across the concessionaires, representing an overall increase of 10 percent due to one-off promotional spending, property enhancements, staff absorption costs affiliated with the closure of satellite casinos.
The spending comes as senior managers and directors are also being reshuffled, with Jefferies highlighting the ongoing need to realign resources amid a broader pivot toward customer‑centric and non‑gaming revenues. The brokerage added that the leadership changes reflected an ongoing push to transform the economy into a global tourism destination, where new expertise and skills are prompting the management overhaul to address the shifting focus.
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Signs of that industry transition remain visible and portend well for Macao’s non-gaming ambitions. Notable January shows have already sold out, including MIRROR’s New Year’s Day concert and the early February performance by popular K‑pop group RIIZE. Chinese-American comedian Jimmy O. Yang will also play a second Lunar New Year show after his initial one was fully booked, suggesting that Macao could expect robust tourism figures to carry into 2026 as well.
Market re-rating
Macao gaming stocks are trading at a discount to their long‑term valuations. Although demand recovery remains intact, analysts warn that without meaningful margin expansion, a broader sector re‑rating will be difficult to achieve. While 2025 GGR stands at roughly 90 percent of its 2019 levels, intensifying competition and rising operating costs continue to weigh on sentiment.
Margin pressure is also building as GGR faces a tougher comparison base this year, with Morgan Stanley suggesting its earlier fourth quarter forecast of 15 percent earnings before interest, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) growth may have been too high.
