Macao’s casino sector is showing renewed investor appeal, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 15 percent year-on-year rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the second half of 2025 – plus a likely re-rating of gaming stocks on the back of robust dividend payouts, multiple casino industry outlets report.
The investment bank’s analysts pointed to interim dividends with more than 50 percent payout ratios declared by Wynn Macau, MGM China, Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China as a signal of confidence in the industry’s recovery. They noted that a return of dividends “usually results in re-rating.”
Wynn surprised by maintaining its HK$0.185 per share payout despite lower revenue and profit, while Galaxy declared HK$0.70 and MGM China HK$0.313, the gambling media outlets said. Sands’ HK$0.25 dividend was lower than expected, which analysts reportedly linked to a US$1 billion shareholder loan repayment to parent Las Vegas Sands.
[See more: Analysts forecast a second-half surge in Macao’s gross gaming revenue]
On the ground, Morgan Stanley’s analysts described the SAR’s casinos as “busier than usual amid seasonality.” Minimum bets ranged from HK$1,000 to HK$2,000 in Melco and Galaxy Macau during their 18 August visit, and hotel rooms were difficult to secure. Non-gaming attractions such as concerts and sports events are also adding to momentum, they noted.
Still, the bank cautioned that margins were not yet lifting, with industry operating expenses up a “quite high” 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley predicted that Wynn and Galaxy would gain market share in the third quarter, while SJM could see some revenue leak to Sands and MGM as its satellite casinos wind up operations.
