Investment bank CLSA now believes gross gaming revenue (GGR) will increase by just 1.8 percent this year, to come in at 230.8 billion (US$28.7 billion) – well below the official forecast of 240 billion patacas (US$30 billion) originally stated in Macao’s 2025 budget.
Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan attributed their downgrade to the weakening yuan and escalating trade tensions between China and US, which will have a negative impact on consumer confidence, Asia Gaming Brief reports.
That CLSA predicted growth at all was due to the city’s increasing visitor numbers, they said. Kiang and Pan forecast visitor numbers to increase by 2.6 percent year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026, then by 4.6 percent in 2027.
But while more tourists are visiting Macao this year than last, they are spending less. This is illustrated by a gap between growth in arrivals and growth in gross gaming revenue during the first two months of 2025: the former increased by 10 percent year-on-year, while the latter rose by less than 1 percent.
[See more: ‘Bear case.’ JP Morgan downgrades its 2025 gross gaming revenue forecast]
Kiang and Pan noted that Macao’s casino operators were facing profitability challenges, and were expected to report a collective 6 percent decline in sector earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation in the first quarter, due to reduced margins.
On a more positive note, the analysts predicted that 2026 would be a better year for the SAR’s gaming industry.
“While we think growth in 2025 will be minimal, this should accelerate in 2026 based on our property team’s view that Chinese property prices will gradually bottom out in [the second half of 2025], which we see as a key driver for consumer confidence in China,” they said.
The government has also acknowledged that annual GGR would likely fall short of expectations in 2025, resulting in a budget deficit for the year. The first quarter saw GGR average 19.22 billion patacas (US$2.4 billion) per month rather than the 20 billion patacas (US$2.5 billion) that had been officially forecast.
