Seaport Research Partners have forecast a 13.7 percent month-on-month drop in Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for June, following a standout performance in May, according to casino website Focus Asia Pacific.
The brokerage’s analyst Vitaly Umansky predicted Macao’s casinos would rake in 17.85 billion patacas (US$2.2 billion) this month, considerably less than last month’s 21.19 billion patacas (US$2.6 billion) but still a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percent.
The sequential drop would be slightly worse than the average historical monthly decline, but not seasonally atypical: last year, June’s GGR came in at about 13 percent less than in May. May is traditionally a strong month for GGR due to the Labour Day golden week holiday, while June tends to see the SAR buffeted by bad weather – a tourism deterrent.
Umansky said that while GGR had been improving in recent months, a sustainable rebound relied on improved consumer sentiment in mainland China (Macao’s biggest source of gamblers). That is expected to show in the second half of the year, as central government stimulus measures kick in.
[See more: Macao’s government revises the 2025 budget amid a gambling revenue dip]
Seaport has estimated that mass GGR is currently at 114 percent of 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, with premium mass up by 47 percent and bass mass still trailing by 17 percent. Umansky noted that the weakest recovery was among the city’s overnight visitors, which he called “destination-based mass.” Seen as the key to significant GGR growth, the group was operating at less than 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to the analyst.
He described his current forecast for June as conservative, pointing out that a number of large concerts scheduled for the month and the final day of the Dragon Boat Festival could boost the figure – so long as the typhoon season doesn’t hit too hard.
Seaport expects annual GGR to come in 4 percent higher than it did in 2024, requiring a significant improvement on the 1.7 percent year-on-year increase clocked across the first five months of the year. Last year’s GRR was 226.8 billion patacas (US$28 billion).
Macao’s government has just adjusted its 2025 budget projections to take worse-than-expected gambling earnings into account. It now forecasts 228 billion patacas (US$28.2 billion) in GGR for the year, down from 240 billion patacas (US$29.7). That makes for a monthly average of 19 billion patacas (US$2.3 billion) instead of the previous 20 billion patacas (US$2.4 billion).
