Macao’s economy is making gains, with gross domestic product (GDP) posting year-on-year growth of 5.1 percent in the second quarter of 2025, according to official figures released by the Statistics and Census Service (known by its Portuguese initials DSEC).
GDP came in at 100.39 billion patacas for the April-June period, supported by a surge in visitor arrivals and steady private consumption, DSEC said in a statement. That figure amounts to 88.8 percent of Macao’s economic output in the same period of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The result is a welcome turnaround from the first quarter, which saw GDP suffer a year-on-year contraction of 1.3 percent.
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Service exports led the recovery, increasing by 6 percent year-on-year and “fuelled by a nearly 20 percent rise in visitor arrivals,” DSEC noted. Exports of “other tourism services” and gaming services recorded respective growth rates of 5.9 percent and 9.9 percent. In contrast, merchandise trade contracted compared with the second quarter of 2024, with exports of goods down 6.6 percent and imports falling 4.1 percent.
Domestic demand remained stable with government spending up 1 percent year-on-year and private consumption edging up 0.3 percent.
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Investment trends, meanwhile, were mixed: gross fixed capital formation fell 3.7 percent due to a decrease in private construction projects, but private equipment investment rose 11.7 percent. Public investment accelerated, with construction up 19.9 percent and equipment purchases surging 83 percent year-on-year.
For the first half of 2025, overall GDP expanded by 1.8 percent year-on-year in real terms to 200.15 billion patacas. That represents 87 percent of the output recorded in the first half of 2019.
The GDP implicit deflator – a measure of overall price changes – fell 0.5 percent year-on-year to 99.
At the end of last year, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) predicted that the city’s GDP would grow roughly 5 percent year-on-year in 2025, but the year got off to a rocky start. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its 7.3 percent growth forecast for the SAR’s economy to 3.6 percent, citing uncertainty due the “swift escalation of trade tensions” brought about by the US’ tariff onslaught.
However, recent months have seen a promising rebound in casinos’ fortunes. That has sparked optimism for the economy, as services exports – of which gaming is a massive contributor – make up the largest single component of Macao’s GDP.
