Macao’s gross domestic product (GDP) full-year growth for 2025 is expected to hit around 5.4 percent year-on-year, according to a report published yesterday by the Macau Economic Association (MEA).
MEA’s forecast is higher than the 4.6 percent growth for 2025 that was projected by Fitch Ratings, which had earlier predicted a 6.9 percent growth before later revising the figure.
In its review of the past year, the MEA pointed out that Macao’s key economic development indicators had been either “stable” or “good.” It also described the Sam Hou Fai administration’s first year as “a good start,” with the financial and fiscal sectors remaining largely stable, as well as the job market continuing to maintain low levels of unemployment.
For 2026, the association expects numerous uncertainties and unpredictable elements in the world economy.
However, Macao’s economy is forecasted to maintain its “stable” to “good” outlook for the year ahead due to a combination of factors, including ongoing post-pandemic recovery, the continued recovery of mainland China’s macroeconomy and the SAR government and gaming concessionaires’ ramping up of efforts to boost the regional and international tourism markets.
Aside from GDP growth, the MEA also expects Macao’s economic prosperity index to remain “stable” over the next three months, reaching 6.2 points in December, 6.2 points in January and 6.4 points in February.
[See more: Fitch downgrades Macao’s GDP outlook as mainland demand softens]
With a maximum score of 10, the prosperity index is determined by calculating the scores of 13 factors such as the visitor arrival rate, gross gaming revenue (GGR) and the hotel occupancy figure.
For the previous two months, the prosperity index score was listed as “stable,” reaching 6.4 points in October and 6.1 points in November.
Some of the indicators that performed well during this period included visitor arrival, hotel guest numbers and hotel occupancy, which earned scores within the 7.0 and 10 point range, thanks to the 8-day National Day break in early October.
GGR was also robust, with the October and November figures hitting a daily rate of 777 million patacas (US$94.8 million) and 703 million patacas (US$87.6 million) respectively. Similarly, unemployment fell to a lowly 1.7 percent, with the MEA pointing out that this was indicative of a “relatively strong demand for labour.”
By contrast, indicators relating to the market and investment such as the mainland consumer confidence index and the loan-deposit ratio of local residents remained sub-optimal. The MEA highlighted that businesses and residents were responding to external uncertainties in a “conservative” manner.
Similarly, the scores for residential property price index and the shares of the six casino operators were reported to be weak, with the association noting that this reflected the cautious approach that the market was continuing to maintain.
