China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the number of births fell to a record low, multiple media outlets report. The country’s death rate, meanwhile, rose to its highest level since 1968.
Data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China’s population fell by 3.39 million last year to 1.405 billion. Births were down 17 percent year-on-year, coming in at 7.92 million, or 5.63 per 1,000 people – the lowest since 1949. Last year’s death-rate was 8.04 per 1,000 people, totalling 11.31 million.
The demographic shift is complicating Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption and manage rising pension and healthcare costs. People aged 60 and above now account for about 23 percent of the total population, according to the NBS.
By 2035, the number of people aged over 60 is projected to reach 400 million, roughly equivalent to the combined populations of the US and Italy. Authorities have already raised retirement ages, with men now expected to retire at 63 and women at 58.
[See more: Well, that’s one way to lift the birthrate: China taxes contraceptives]
The central government has been working to boost China’s tumbling birthrate – a situation accelerated by the one-child policy (1979-2015) – through policies spanning a condom tax, cash incentives, expanded childcare options, longer parental leave, programmes promoting so-called “marriage culture” and free medical care during pregnancy.
But these measures have been met by a tepid response at best, with couples complaining that raising a child in China remains too expensive, particularly given the country’s economic uncertainties and high unemployment rate.
China’s fertility rate of 1 birth per woman is one of the world’s lowest, and less than half the replacement rate. Other East Asian countries including South Korea and Singapore have similar rates, while Macao’s is significantly lower at just 0.68 births per woman.
