November’s gross gaming revenues (GGR) beat analysts’ estimates, hitting 21.1 billion patacas last month, representing a 14.4 percent increase from a year earlier. Year-to-date revenues rose to 226.6 billion patacas, an 8.6 percent gain over the same period in 2024, effectively matching last year’s entire intake of 226.8 billion patacas in just eleven months.
[See more: Gaming revenues on pace to hit revised budget target by early December]
Premium mass players were behind November’s surge. Shifting preferences for less crowded, off-peak days drove the pickup in gaming revenues during the normally quiet month, commented CLSA gaming analyst Jeffrey Kiang, who noted similar tailwinds near the end of Chinese New Year and in the weeks following the Labour Day period.
Should this pattern of non-peak play carry into next year, GGR forecasts could see upward revisions. In a summer survey conducted by CLSA, the brokerage house observed that the number of participants planning to visit Macao outside major public holidays had doubled when compared to those polled twelve months earlier, underscoring the strength of this emerging trend.
Besides fewer participants choosing to travel during school holidays, the CLSA findings also corresponded to a massive 20-point drop among those wanting to go to Macao during the next Labour Day Week, likely reflecting the survey’s window which overlapped when Macao registered a 40 percent jump in tourism arrivals in early May.
Structural shifts and future implications
For the first ten months of the year, Macao welcomed 33 million tourists, an increase of more than 14 percent, according to data from the MGTO. Easing visa restrictions and improving connectivity are cited as key pillars driving tourism numbers higher. Corporate travel, particularly in the MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions) tourism is helping attract higher spending visitors, particularly earlier in the calendar week which is normally a lull period in demand.
However, as visitation numbers creep closer to the 39 million recorded in 2019, strains on local resources and overcrowded attractions risk compromising Macao’s appeal to outsiders, experts say.
“There’s no magic number that Macao should be aiming for, but the negative spillover from overtourism and traffic congestions are becoming more visible, which should prompt a strategic review that emphasises quality tourism, rather than quantity tourism,” observes Glenn McCartney, an associate professor in integrated resort and tourism management at the University of Macau, in conversation with Macao News.
[See more: Who are Macao’s three-peaters, and what do they mean for future tourism initiatives?]
However, the tourism experts note that the pickup in off-peak visitation is a welcome development, as this mitigates the seasonality effects Macao has historically been prone to. “For the moment, the good news is that Macao remains a popular tourism destination, affecting only when visitors choose to come, not why they should,” McCartney shares.
Fourth quarter GGR to rise 15 percent
Looking ahead, visitor momentum appears unimpeded. Macao’s December concert lineup includes popular Hong Kong singers Alan Tam and Jacky Wu, and a New Year’s Day performance by boy band Mirror. The events coincide with seasonal Christmas festivities.
The non‑gaming events should continue to support gaming revenues. Despite the GGR dip in October, moderate payback can be expected in December, with CLSA’s Kiang forecasting gaming revenues of 20.9 billion patacas, a 15 percent increase from a year earlier. This would bring the bank’s full-year total to 246.9 billion patacas, a 9 percent increase over 2024. GGR for the final quarter would expand by 15 percent should the CLSA estimate be achieved.
