China’s manufacturing sector showed faint signs of improvement in September, even as overall factory activity remained in contraction territory for a sixth straight month.
The latest official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.8, up from 49.4 in August, according to data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and cited in multiple media reports.
The figure, still below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction, suggests manufacturers are being cautious as they await fresh stimulus measures and clearer signals on a potential trade agreement with the US, Reuters says.
The sub-index for production climbed to 51.9 – a six-month high – while new orders improved month-on-month to 49.7. Key growth sectors like equipment and high-tech manufacturing continued to expand, registering PMIs of 51.9 and 51.6, respectively. Business confidence also strengthened, with the sub-index for expectations reaching 54.1, its third consecutive monthly increase.
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Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Reuters that the PMI’s rebound reflected seasonal recovery and the government’s targeted policy support.
Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI – covering services and construction – eased to 50, its weakest level since November and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Activity in the postal sector, telecommunications, and financial services remained strong, but the retreat of the summer travel season weighed on hospitality and entertainment. The services sub-sector stood at 50.1, while the construction sub-sector rose to 49.3.
September’s data release coincided with the Asian Development Bank curbing its growth forecast for developing Asia, citing elevated US tariffs and trade tensions that threaten regional exports. The bank now projects regional growth at 4.8 percent in 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from earlier estimates.
Analysts are now looking towards the Communist Party conclave scheduled later this month for insights into Chinese policymakers’ plans for the next five years.
