China’s economy started 2026 on a stronger‑than‑expected footing, with first‑quarter growth hitting 5 percent year on year despite signs of cooling momentum in March, according to multiple media reports.
The numbers beat a Reuters‑polled forecast of 4.8 percent and marked an acceleration from 4.5 percent in the final quarter of 2025, offering Beijing some early comfort as it targets full‑year growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show gross domestic product reached 33.4 trillion yuan (about US$4.9 trillion) in the first three months, as industrial output and exports did much of the heavy lifting.
Industrial production rose 6.1 percent in the quarter, supported by strong performance in high‑tech manufacturing and equipment sectors, while exports jumped by double digits, helped by resilient demand for electronics, machinery and new energy products.
[See more: China’s trade growth starts strong in 2026 but momentum cools in March]
Analysts say those external drivers offset persistent softness at home, where consumer spending and the property market remain under pressure.
However, retail sales only grew 2.4 percent in the quarter, undershooting pre‑pandemic norms and slowing markedly in March as households stayed cautious on big‑ticket purchases.
Fixed‑asset investment also moderated, with real‑estate investment still contracting as developers struggle with funding stress and weak buyer sentiment. A Yicai Global analysis noted that several key indicators, including industrial output and exports, decelerated in March from the strong start seen in January and February, suggesting the initial burst of activity is already easing.
The NBS has warned that the mainland economy still faces certain difficulties and challenges. Economists interviewed by Chinese and international media expect further targeted support measures over coming months, from infrastructure spending and tax relief for manufacturers to selective steps to stabilise housing.
