Hong Kong and Macao both reported robust economic performances at the start of 2026, but for slightly different reasons – the former leaning on a broad‑based recovery in consumption and trade, the latter on tourism and gambling returning to pre‑pandemic form.
In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan has signalled that first‑quarter GDP is on track for the city’s strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years, ahead of the government’s release of advance estimates tomorrow.
Writing in his weekly blog, Chan said growth in the first three months of 2026 is expected to accelerate on the back of stronger private consumption, better export performance and a pick‑up in fixed investment.
Local spending has been recovering over the past year as the administration leans on “mega events” – from arts and sports fixtures to shopping and dining promotions – to attract visitors and coax residents to spend.
Tourism has been central to recent economic performance. Hong Kong recorded more than 14.3 million visitor arrivals in the first quarter alone, and officials now expect total visitors for 2026 to surpass an earlier forecast of 53.8 million.
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Chan said this could push tourism‑related expenditure above HK$240 billion for the year, providing a direct boost to retail, catering, hotels and transport. Early data from the Labour Day “golden week” at the start of May – with over 600,000 arrivals in the first two days of the month – suggest that momentum is carrying over, with restaurants and shops reporting brisk business.
Across the estuary, Macao’s first‑quarter GDP is showing “steady and promising growth,” according to preliminary figures from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), driven mainly by exports of services as visitor numbers surged over Lunar New Year and a packed calendar of festivals and events.
The government highlights robust performance in travel and gambling, alongside a recovery in wholesale and retail, hotels and restaurants.
At the same time, Macao’s domestic demand picture remains more mixed. While private consumption has improved, the authorities note that investment and parts of the non‑gambling economy are still normalising, even as overall output edges closer to 2019 levels.
The DSEC says the preliminary figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totalled 108.01 billion patacas (US$13.38 billion) in the first quarter of this year, up by 7.1 percent year-on-year in real terms. The overall economic output corresponded to 90.3 percent of the total in the same period of 2019.
