A recent forecast by the Macao government, predicting that the casino sector’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will hit 240 billion patacas (approximately US$29.9 billion) in 2025, may be significantly underestimated, according to a Citigroup analysis cited by industry media.
In a comprehensive report published on Wednesday, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau projected a 7 percent increase in GGR year-over-year, reaching US$30.4 billion, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rising by 13 percent to US$9 billion in 2025. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by increased visitor numbers, the introduction of advanced gambling tables, and a growing trend in side bets.
The analysts also drew attention to the government’s historical tendency to underestimate GGR. They pointed out that the government has failed to accurately forecast GGR in nine out of the last ten years (from 2011 to 2019 and in 2023), with discrepancies ranging from 10 percent to 60 percent.
[See more: October set a new post-pandemic GGR record: 20.8 billion patacas]
“If past trends continue, there could be considerable upside potential to Citi’s GGR forecast,” they noted, estimating that the theoretical GGR per player could rise by 5.9 percent solely due to enhanced efficiency from smart tables, which facilitate a higher number of hands per hour. Additionally, the rising interest in side bets – which have the potential to greatly increase a player’s overall value – are easier to manage with the new technology.
“Smart tables will also allow casinos to better understand the true value of their players through detailed data collection on their gaming behaviours,” the analysts said.
The official prediction of 2025’s GGR was made earlier this week, when outgoing Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng presented his valedictory budget proposals to the Legislative Assembly. The government estimate represents an increase of 11 percent over its prediction of 216 billion patacas (US$26.9 billion) for 2024 – a sum that is likely to be exceeded, with cumulative GGR in the first ten months already standing at 190 million patacas (US$23.6 billion).
