Gambling pundits are optimistic for the start of 2025, predicting year-on-year growth of up to six percent for gross gaming revenue (GGR) across January and February, Asia Gaming Brief reports – citing Citigroup analyst George Choi. That would see GGR come in at 40 billion patacas ($5.01 billion) for the first two months of the year combined.
Choi noted that combining the months “neutralises the impact of the timing of Chinese New Year” and its associated long holiday – which runs from 28 January to 4 February. However, January alone could see a year-on-year decrease of two percent due to the timing of the “Spring Festival travel rush,” which is typically a quieter fortnight for Macao’s casinos, he explained.
This follows December’s poor performance, which Citigroup has suggested was caused by disruptions in the SAR around President Xi Jinping’s visit to mark the 25th anniversary of handover and attend Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai’s inauguration. December generated 18.2 billion patacas in GGR, three percent less than had been forecast – making it the only month in 2024 to see a year-on-year decline.
[See more: Macao registers annual gross gaming revenue of 226.8 billion patacas]
JP Morgan meanwhile issued a statement reaffirming its forecast that Macao’s GGR will grow by five percent across the whole of 2025. That’s in spite of December failing to live up to expectations, Inside Asia Gaming reported.
“We didn’t have to change our forecasts despite well-documented consumption and macro headwinds, as Macao demand has been (surprisingly) in-line thanks to a solid recovery in visitation,” the investment bank said in a note. “This makes us comfortable staying with our five-plus percent GGR assumption, without assuming any meaningful inflection in the macro backdrop.”
Macao’s 2024 GGR totaled 226.8 billion patacas (US$28.3 billion), representing a 78 percent recovery compared to 292.5 billion patacas (US$36.5 billion) in 2019 – the last full year before Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions hit the industry hard.
