Tentative calculations place Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) above the 228 billion (US$28.4 billion) pataca mark for the year as the pickup in the premium mass segment and stronger tourism inflows continue to feed business into the city’s integrated resorts. The assessment builds off November’s better‑than‑expected gaming growth of 14.4 percent, which drew in more than 20.9 billion patacas (US$1.5 billion) and lifted year-to-date revenues to 226.6 billion patacas (US$28.2 billion), an 8.6 percent increase.
Though the November reading was less than October’s pull due to the seasonality effect from the National Day public holiday, the industry should see some moderate payback in December. CLSA’s Jeffrey Kiang is forecasting gaming revenues of 20.9 billion patacas (US$20. 9 billion) during the final month, bringing in 246.9 billion patacas (US$30.7 billion) for the year which represents an 8.9 percent gain.
[See more: Gaming revenues on pace to hit revised budget target by early December]
For 2026, officials are budgeting gaming revenues of 236 billion patacas (US$29. 4 billion), representing a modest 3.5 percent raise from this year’s target and slightly below what most sell-side analysts are anticipating. Government estimates have historically been proven to fall on the conservative side and are typically a non-event, notes Kiang in comments sent to Macao News, explaining that player demand and win rates carry a heavier significance when calculating GGR projections.
Consensus estimates are forecasting 15 percent GGR growth for the fourth quarter, which would take this year’s gaming revenues above next year’s budget target.
GGR to expand more than 10 percent until April
The outlooks remain underpinned by a favourable macroeconomic landscape. In addition to an upbeat currency projection for the Chinese yuan, CLSA’s industrial profitability index, a harbinger of gaming sentiment, points to benign conditions. The assessment is shared by Morgan Stanley analysts who are projecting double-digit GGR growth rates each month until April.
While the base effect from this year’s second half is expected to kick in around the summer months, an emerging development among premium mass players choosing to stay during less popular, non-peak times normally associated with fewer tourists, is feeding into the gaming revenues and could support upside risks to GGR forecasts should the pattern carry over into 2026.
[See more: Better gaming revenues during non-peak holidays might be linked to overtourism]
According to a poll conducted by CLSA, the brokerage house observed that the share of surveyed participants preferring to visit Macao outside major public holidays had doubled from twelve months earlier, a trend visible across the later part of Chinese New Year and the days following October’s “golden week” holiday. The same report showed that fewer were planning to visit during the May “golden week” or the Dragon Boat Festival, likely reflecting the survey’s window, which overlapped when Macao registered a 40 percent jump in tourism arrivals in early May.
Margin challenges and dividends
With the gaming numbers pulling closer to its 2019 levels, industry insiders are monitoring whether a margin recovery is far behind. Though there has been a dramatic shift towards higher-margin mass-market customers, those earning accretions have been offset by rising operating and marketing expenses needed to capture market share and compensate for the loss of bigger spending players.
Against this backdrop, CLSA is forecasting sector earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of HK$68.1 billion (US$8.75 billion) for 2026, representing a 6.6 percent increase from this year’s projection of HK$63.9 billion (US$8.21 billion). Kiang also estimates the six concessionaires should be expected to generate free cash flows of US$4.2 billion next year while paying out an estimated US$2.9 billion in total dividends, implying a sector payout ratio of 68.1 percent based on free cash flow estimates, up from 50.6 percent this year.
