The US banking group Jefferies has lowered its forecast for Macao’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) again. It now expects concessionaires to earn a collective total of 237 billion patacas (US$29.3 billion), or year-on-year growth of 4.5 percent, casino industry website GGR Asia reports.
That’s down from the 240 billion patacas (US$29.7 billion) Jefferies adjusted its forecast to in March, itself a reduction on the bank’s original 245 billion pataca (US$30.3 billion) estimate for 2025 issued last November.
In a memo issued Tuesday, Jefferies analysts noted that its latest prediction was “in line with market estimates, but higher than [Macao] government estimates.” Last month, the government revised its official 2025 GGR forecast from 240 billion patacas (US$29.7 billion) to 228 billion patacas (US$28.2 billion). The SAR recorded a total haul of 226.8 billion patacas (US$28.1 billion) in 2024.
[See more: Satellite casinos in Macao: what their closure means for the future]
Jefferies based its adjustment on Macao’s worse-than-expected gaming intake over the first half of the year, despite a promising upturn in May and June. The January-June period recorded a monthly average of 19.79 billion patacas ($US2.5 billion), slightly below the 20 billion patacas (US$2.5 billion) needed to reach the government’s original target.
The bank also adjusted its forecasts for 2026 and 2027, to 245 billion patacas (US$30.3 billion) and 254 billion patacas (US$31.4 billion) respectively.
It noted that the second half of the year was off to a “good start” with the first two weeks of July recording 9 percent year-on-year GGR growth – driven largely by Cantopop superstar Jacky Cheung’s concert series at Galaxy Arena and a high VIP win rate. It forecast growth of 5.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with the same period in 2024.
