Seaport Research Partners has dramatically cut its growth forecast for gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macao, due to casinos’ lacklustre performance across the first quarter of the year.
The brokerage now expects expansion of just 3 percent, down from a previous estimate of 6.5 percent, GGR Asia reports. Analyst Vitaly Umansky said he still believed GGR would recover to 92 percent of 2019’s figure by 2027, clocking growth of 7 percent in 2026 and 2027.
“We are forecasting a strengthening to the market in late summer and into the back half of this year and do not expect the [US-China] trade war to have a significant negative impact on Macao, at this time,” he said – though warned that a weakening yuan could result in further decreases.
[See more: ‘Bear case.’ JP Morgan downgrades its 2025 gross gaming revenue forecast]
Umansky noted that the “benefits derived from efficiencies” from the proliferation of smart tables “could be stronger than we expect, and could lead to upward revision on our forecasts.” He also said that baccarat side-betting was on the rise in Macao’s casinos, increasing the overall GGR per player.
Macao generated GGR of 57.65 billion patacas (US$7.21 billion) during the first three months of 2025, up by just 0.86 percent compared with the same period last year.
Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai acknowledged this was less than the official target of 20 billion patacas per month in his 2025 policy address earlier this month, noting that Macao would face a budget deficit if the trend continued.
