Macao’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) experienced a 1.3 percent year-on-year real decline in the first quarter of 2025, amounting to 99.78 billion patacas (US$12.45 billion), according to preliminary figures released by the Statistics and Census Service (known by its Portuguese initials DSEC).
The bureau attributed the decrease to a relatively high comparison base from the same period last year, shifts in visitor consumption patterns, and other contributing factors. The overall economic output for this quarter represents 85.2 percent of the level seen in the same period of 2019.
DSEC information indicates that after a strong recovery in 2023, Macao’s economy gradually stabilized in 2024, with the year-on-year real growth rate slowing from 23 percent in the first quarter to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The recent dip in GDP reflects challenges in maintaining the high growth rates seen earlier in the recovery period.
Analysis of major economic components reveals that despite an 11.1 percent increase in visitor arrivals, total exports of services decreased by 3.8 percent year-on-year in real terms. This decline is due to a reduction in exports of tourism services resulting from changing visitor spending patterns.
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Domestic demand components remained relatively stable, however, with gross fixed capital formation rising by 7.8 percent, government final consumption expenditure by 1 percent, and private consumption expenditure by 0.6 percent.
The global economic environment has been marked by volatility and challenges at the start of the year, including subdued growth momentum and increasing uncertainties in China-U.S. relations. Rapid shifts in visitor consumption behaviors, preferences, and demographics have weakened spending sentiment among tourists visiting Macao. This decline in visitor expenditure has placed pressure on the local tourism industry, contributing to fluctuations in Macao’s economic recovery.
However, despite these challenges, Macao’s economy has maintained an overall recovery trend, supported by stable public finances and a positive outlook. Barring major changes in external or internal conditions, Macao is expected to sustain its recovery momentum and is unlikely to face a cyclical economic downturn.
The revised GDP figures, to be released in mid-May, will offer further clarification on the first quarter’s economic performance.
This article was drafted by AI before being reviewed by an editor.
