Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau says there isn’t “a snowball’s chance in hell” that Canada will join the United States as a state, responding to a proposal from the US president-elect Donald Trump.
While Trump’s repeated suggestions about making Canada the 51st state may seem fanciful, the threat of “economic force” is very real, reports the BBC. Trump has repeatedly pledged to place a “substantial” tariff on Canadian goods – possibly as high as 25 percent – unless the country takes steps to increase security at its shared US border.
Such tariffs would have a potentially huge impact on trade, which amounted to US$2.5 billion daily in 2023, according to estimates from Ottawa.
[See more: Trump threatens new tariffs on China from ‘day one’ of his presidency]
Canada is considering imposing counter-tariffs if Trump follows through with his threat. Doug Ford, premier of Ontario – which logged more than US$343 billion in trade with the US in 2023 – warned “we will retaliate hard” while reminding Trump that his province also supplies energy to a million and a half homes and businesses in the US.
Trump’s concerns over border security centre on the flow of the synthetic narcotic fentanyl, a major contributor to the more than 81,000 opioid-related deaths in the US in 2023. While the issue is a serious one, the flow of drugs over the US-Canada border is significantly lower than that across the US border with Mexico (which also faces the same 25-percent tariff threat). Canada has already promised to implement new security measures, including enhanced surveillance and a joint “strike force” focused on transnational organised crime.
Trump has meanwhile criticised Canada for its military spending, which has consistently fallen short of the target set for NATO members. Ottawa has vowed to address the issue, with the Trudeau government saying it would boost annual spending from US$18.7 billion to almost US$34.7 billion by 2030. It remains unclear how the recent resignation of Trudeau, who will remain on until his replacement is chosen in late March, will impact these efforts or Canada’s relations with the US.
