Macao’s casinos may have “hit a ceiling” when it comes to generating gaming revenue, industry expert David Bonnet suggests in a lengthy opinion piece published by Inside Asian Gaming on Tuesday. The gaming consultant also posed a question: What does “healthy development” look like for the casino industry under the SAR’s new government?
Bonnet points to “shrinking gross gaming revenue (GGR)” exemplified by a 5.6 percent year-on-year drop in January, in spite of revamped resorts, increasing numbers of smart tables and “tailwinds” from the Lunar New Year holiday in the form of a visitor influx.
“With the CNY holiday generally coinciding with peak yearly demand, 2025’s monthly GGR may have already crested and could eventually ebb to around 18 billion patacas (US$2.24 billion), adjusting with seasonality,” he wrote.
[See more: MGM’s CEO is ‘pretty excited’ about Macao in spite of China’s troubled economy]
January netted 18.25 billion patacas (US$2.27 billion) in GGR, while 2024 saw a monthly average of 18.9 billion patacas (May was last year’s peak, at 20.2 billion patacas). The government has projected annual GGR of 240 billion patacas (US$29.9 billion) for 2025, meaning a monthly average of about 20 billion patacas (US$2.49 billion) across the year. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has also repeatedly emphasised that gaming’s “healthy” development would be prioritised going forward, as opposed to the rampant growth of the 2000s and 2010s.
According to Bonnet, the official forecast could be a “not-so-subtle implication … that GGR productivity of up to approximately 20 billion patacas monthly is healthy, but anything more than that is unhealthy.”
He pointed to a number of national and local initiatives rolled out last year that could be tempering GGR growth: the crackdown on illegal money exchange operators at the SAR’s casino-resorts, the central authorities’ increasing focus on curbing capital flight from the Chinese mainland, and Macao’s newly promulgated Illegal Gaming Law.
[See more: Nearly 850 people have been arrested so far in the currency exchange crackdown]
“Very clearly, policymakers understand that tightening the tourniquet on China’s capital outflows reduces liquidity within Macao, with the commensurate effect of diminishing overall waging turnover, resulting in lower average bets,” Bonnet wrote.
“This will inevitably lead to lower GGR, based on casino games’ math and the normalised casino house advantage.”
Bonnet said that while these policies may have aimed to keep monthly GGR at around 20 billion patacas, external challenges – like China’s economic slump, new tariffs imposed by the US, and Macao’s changing visitor demographic (more families, less gamblers) – could knock a few billion patacas off that figure.
[See more: Smart gaming tables will ‘level the playing field’ in Macao, report says]
To stimulate demand and boost GGR up to that so-called healthy level, Bonnet had three recommendations. First, he proposed that casinos introduce “new products” to reduce their dependence on baccarat, which has a low house advantage. He also advised the SAR’s casinos to “cultivate players” in more complex games like blackjack and poker, in simulated game rooms where they could learn the ropes before risking real cash.
Finally, Bonnet advocated for more forms of cashless gaming. He suggested allowing cryptocurrency and “the much-anticipated digital renminbi,” which could “help to solve the prevailing liquidity problems while addressing regulators’ concerns.”
If Macao’s gaming industry was indeed in the early stages of decline, Bonnet said, it required a collaborative approach and “decisive commitment to making essential changes” to achieve sustainable growth.
