Victoria Peak, one of Hong Kong’s most recognisable landmarks, is facing severe climate change risks that could compromise its safety features, according to a warning from HDI Risk Consulting.
The subsidiary of the insurer HDI Global used data-driven modelling as part of its Iconic Landmarks Series to analyse how rising temperatures and increased rainfall threaten the site, which draws up to 7 million tourists each year.
The analysis, which was reported by Hong Kong Business, warns that extreme weather is pushing the Peak’s safety conditions to worrying levels.
One primary concern is the geological instability of the northern slopes. These slopes are composed of weathered granite that becomes unstable when saturated. This threat is amplified by increasingly intense rainfall, such as the record-breaking 158.1 millimetres per hour recorded in September 2023.
[See more: Officials explicitly link violent storms battering Guangzhou to climate change]
Government mitigation efforts have reduced landslide risks by over 75 percent since the 1970s, but analysts note that extreme weather events now threaten to bypass these existing defences.
The report also forecasts a significant rise in heat stress. Under a “business as usual” scenario, maximum temperatures at the Peak are projected to reach 41.28°C by the year 2100, Hong Kong Business says.
This heat is expected to cause ecological damage, including the premature loss of leaves in subtropical vegetation. This, in turn, creates flammable fuel, increasing the risk of wildfires during drier periods. These conditions are also likely to change visitor behaviour, pushing crowds towards cooler morning and evening hours while raising health risks on the steep walking trails.
Michael Ahn, the CEO of HDI Global Hong Kong, stressed that identifying these risks early will allow the city to bolster Victoria Peak’s resilience before any major disruptions occur.
