Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, estimates China’s real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 will likely be 5.4 percent year on year. He made the projection in a note sent to China’s state-backed Global Times paper.
The bank also recently boosted its rating on China stocks, saying it was an “optimal time for global investors to increase allocations.” It made the assessments after better-than-expected data from the first two months.
It maintained its forecast of slower growth for the second quarter, however, noting the impact of tariffs and other external factors.
[See more: Beijing unveils action plan to ‘vigorously’ boost consumption]
The upbeat outlook comes in the wake of a revised forecast from the OECD, which said China was on track for 4.8 percent economic growth this year – a 0.1 percent increase from the forecast made last December, according to the Global Times.
With industrial production, infrastructure investment and retail sales performing better than expected, Beijing has set a growth target of “around 5 percent” for 2025. On Sunday, officials also unveiled a plan to vigorously boost consumption, stimulate domestic demand across the board and increase spending power by lifting earnings and reducing financial burdens.
However, according to the BBC, faltering exports, caused by the escalating trade war between the US and China, could make achieving the target harder than it was last year.
