Export growth in China achieved a 27-month high in October, according to official figures, rising 12.7 percent year-on-year to come in at US$309 billion.
The figure is significantly higher than the 5.5 percent prediction by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and well above the 2.4 rise seen in September.
By destination, Chinese exports to the US, European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia rose by 8.1 percent, 12.7 percent, 15.8 percent and 26.7 percent respectively in October.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told the South China Morning Post that the increases “may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments in order to mitigate the damage of potential trade war next year.”
[See more: What the Trump victory could mean for China]
Donald Trump’s victory over the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the US presidential elections, has concerned Chinese exporters, since Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 60 percent on Chinese goods.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, said that the impact would be even worse if Trump extended his tariffs from made-in-China to “made-by-China” – hitting production in countries like Vietnam and Mexico, where Chinese-owned factories operate.
Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China with Standard Chartered, predicted that Chinese exporters were likely to expedite orders in the coming months to make the most of the period before Trump takes office.
He added that the surge could help Beijing achieve its growth target of around five percent for 2024 and told the Post that Chinese exporters were “diversifying their industrial chains” in preparation for tariff hikes, noting that after the 2018 to 2019 trade war with the US they were “more experienced and prepared.”
