Business confidence across the Greater Bay Area (GBA) climbed to a multi-year high in the third quarter of 2025, led by sharp gains in Hong Kong and steady improvement in Macao, according to the Standard Chartered-Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) Business Confidence Index released this week.
The accompanying report noted that “external uncertainty” appeared to have settled in the wake of China and the US’ fragile trade truce, following the latter’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff onslaught in April. Indeed, firms appeared to be accepting tariff unpredictability as the new normal, it read.
The report also cited “strengthened efforts by government and industry associations since July to manage excessive competition” as reasons for higher prices and improved profits.
[See more: Macao’s economic sentiment remains stable amid a mixed performance]
While most surveyed firms said they felt cautious about expanding business domestically, about half indicated an intention to do so within the next 12 months. According to HKTDC, they were busy enhancing product quality, strengthening brand building and improving cost controls to “address the challenges.”
More than 63 percent of respondents said they had not been impacted by the excessive domestic competition Beijing has been cracking down on. Just over 3 percent said they had benefitted from it, 29 percent reported moderate impact and 5 percent said there had been a significant impact.
The HKTDC’s overall Current Performance Index rose from 53.1 in the second quarter to 54.7 in the third – a four-year high – while the Expectations Index climbed to a two-year high of 55.7. Both remain above the 50 neutral mark, indicating expansion.
[See more: Macao gaming tax revenue rises amid strong GGR growth]
Hong Kong recorded the biggest rebound within the GBA, with its current performance up 8.3 points to 52.2 and expectations rising 7.3 points to 53.6.
Foshan and Shenzhen clocked the highest current performance scores, 59.3 and 56.7 respectively. Dongguan’s plunged more than 10 points, to 53.5, while “Macao and other cities” saw a collective 5.7 point drop to 51. They also saw their Expectations Index fall, to 49.3 – signalling contraction.
The GBA Business Confidence Index tracks business sentiment among firms in nine mainland cities plus Hong Kong and Macao.
