China’s economy grew 5 percent year-on-year in 2025, hitting Beijing’s target of “around” that figure despite heightened external and internal pressures. That’s according to official data reported by multiple media outlets on Monday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) reached 140.19 trillion yuan (US$20.01 trillion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Growth was supported by a record goods trade surplus of about US$1.19 trillion, as exporters offset a sharp fall in shipments to the US – due to Washington’s tariff war with Beijing – with stronger demand from other markets, including Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia.
Economic momentum slowed toward the end of the year. GDP expanded 4.5 percent year on year in the fourth quarter, down from 4.8 percent in the previous quarter, as domestic spending and investment remained subdued. Fixed-asset investment declined 3.8 percent for the full year, the first annual drop since records began in 1996, while private investment fell 6.4 percent.
[See more: China posts ‘hard-won’ record trade surplus in 2025]
The data also showed an uneven performance across the economy. Industrial output rose 5.9 percent in 2025, led by equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries, while retail sales missed their 4.1 percent forecast to increase by just 3.7 percent. Investment in real estate development plummeted 17.2 percent year-on-year, extending a multi-year slump that has weighed heavily on domestic demand.
Kang Yi, head of the NBS, said China’s growth in 2025 was “hard-won”, noting that the economy faced challenges including strong supply and relatively weak demand. He acknowledged that “more proactive and effective macro policies” would be needed to expand domestic demand and support stable growth as China enters its 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Looking ahead, analysts cautioned that reliance on export-led growth may be difficult to sustain. While China is widely expected to set a growth target of around 5 percent again for 2026, economists surveyed by Reuters forecast growth closer to 4.5 percent, citing weak consumption, demographic pressures and lingering strains in the property sector as key constraints.
