Macao’s government expects casinos to generate 236 billion patacas (US$29.4 billion) in gross gaming revenue next year, according to the 2026 proposed budget under review in the Legislative Assembly.
The estimate reflects a 3.5 per cent increase over the revised forecast for this year and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to the government’s original 2025 projection. In June, officials cut the 2025 gaming revenue projection from 240 billion patacas (US$29.9 billion) to 228 billion patacas (US$28.4 billion) after a weaker-than-expected start to the year.
Casinos have since regained momentum. GGR for the first 10 months of 2025 reached 205.4 billion patacas (US$25.6 billion), averaging 20.5 billion patacas (US$2.56 billion) per month. Some analysts now believe full-year GGR could finish as high as 246 billion patacas (US$30.6 billion).
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The government’s 2026 projection remains cautious. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai, presenting his policy address this week, highlighted persistent external risks and the vulnerability of Macao’s economy, even as tourism and gaming indicators perform solidly.
Analysts are more upbeat. Recent notes from Jefferies and Seaport Partners forecast around 6 per cent and 7 per cent year-on-year growth in GGR next year, respectively.
The draft budget projects total revenue of 118.8 billion patacas (US$14.8 billion) and expenditure of 113.5 billion patacas (US$14.2 billion), leaving a surplus of 5.3 billion patacas (US$661 million).
