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What the politburo’s language implies about the nation’s economy in 2025

Beijing’s use of ‘crisis-era’ phrasing reveals a depth of determination that hasn’t been seen since 2009, according to one analysis
  • It’s expected that the central government will set a growth target of about 5 percent – the same as this year – for 2025

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UPDATED: 10 Dec 2024, 8:32 am

The country’s Politburo has issued a statement announcing its intention to adopt a “more active” set of policies to grow domestic demand in 2025, using “moderately loose” monetary tools. According to a South China Morning Post analysis, this language hasn’t been used since the global financial crisis in 2009.

As such, it hints at “the gravity with which the country’s leadership views present economic conditions,” the Post argued. The Communist Party’s top decision-making body issued its statement yesterday, after a meeting that resulted in pledges to boost demand and stabilise both the property and stock markets next year.

Beijing described its monetary policy as “moderately loose” when the mainland’s banks put what appeared to be maximum effort into keeping the economy afloat in 2009. It has been described as “prudent” at almost all other times. The last time the country’s overarching fiscal policy was described as “more active” was even longer ago, in 2001.

[See more: A new study shows the steep decline of China’s luxury market]

The Post surmised that these “crisis-era” turns of phrase revealed the government’s determination to spur economic growth, which has been struggling for the past few years. Beijing began introducing a raft of stimulus measures in late September, and there are indications they are starting to have an effect on key indicators like manufacturing activity.

The politburo’s statement also noted that the “main goals for economic and social development throughout the year will be successfully completed.”

The mainland set a target for economic growth of about 5 percent for this year, though some major banks have forecast that the country will fall short of this – and have downgraded their predictions for its performance. It’s expected that the government will set the same target for next year.

UPDATED: 10 Dec 2024, 8:32 am

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