Business confidence across the Greater Bay Area (GBA) eased in the fourth quarter of 2025, though maintained a moderately positive outlook, according to the latest Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index released with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC).
While sentiment was down compared with the third quarter, it remained above the growth threshold. The index tracking current business performance dropped to 50.3 from 54.7, and expectations declined to 51 from 55.7. Analysts attributed the slowdown mainly to the fading impact of earlier front-loaded activity, alongside a more cautious approach to investment and financing.
Beneath the headline numbers, performance varied. Measures for new orders, fixed asset investment and profits dipped below the threshold, reflecting weaker lending and investment on the Chinese mainland. At the same time, expectations for production, sales and profits stayed positive, pointing to steady demand carrying into early 2026.
Hong Kong once again emerged as a standout performer within the GBA. The city’s current performance reading jumped 5.7 points to 57.9, while expectations climbed 1.8 points to 55.4, driven largely by strong activity in professional services and the retail and wholesale sectors.
[See more: How the Greater Bay Area is turning cities into weekend destinations – and why Macao is benefiting]
Wing Chu, deputy director of research at HKTDC, said the extension of the US-China trade truce helped lift business sentiment in Hong Kong and allowed the city to outperform other GBA hubs. He added that Hong Kong’s recovery remains on track, supported by robust business activity and the continued strength of its professional services industry.
“The HKTDC will continue to proactively support GBA enterprises in leveraging Hong Kong’s professional services to go global and capitalise on opportunities in emerging markets, including those in the Middle East,” Wing said.
The survey found growing interest among GBA companies in expanding into the Middle East. More than half of respondents said they were considering the move, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia topping the list of target markets. However, firms also flagged concerns around regulatory opacity, foreign investment restrictions and cultural differences.
Nearly all respondents said Hong Kong’s professional services would play a key role in overcoming those hurdles. Standard Chartered economist Hunter Chan said Hong Kong’s strengths as a “super-connector” make it a natural gateway for GBA companies seeking new overseas markets as geopolitical risks reshape global trade.
