Seaport Research Partners has predicted a 6.5 percent year-on-year increase in full-year gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025, with most growth happening in the second half of the year, GGR Asia reports.
According to Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky, the “growth should be driven by increase in marketing efforts by operators and improving consumer sentiment in China.” Umansky said he expected the upcoming double-gathering of political elites and policymakers – known as the “two sessions” – to result in “more of a pro-growth stance than was the case over the last two years.”
“While we do not expect any ‘helicopter money’ to consumers that would fuel higher spend, further stimulus will come from government spending and policies that could drive higher consumer spend and private business activity,” he noted.
[See more: Are Macao’s casinos in decline? One gaming expert asks if GGR has ‘already crested’]
The forecast follows February’s promising rise in GGR, which went up by around 8 percent month-on-month and by 6.8 percent year-on-year. That in turn followed a disappointing haul in January, which saw a year-on-year tumble.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan Securities analysts said February’s result “makes us feel pretty comfortable” that full-year GGR would hit between 2 and 3 percent growth when compared with 2024 – a range significantly less than what Seaport predicted. They agreed that GGR would be higher later in the year.
Macao’s casinos generated 226.8 billion patacas (US$28.1 billion) of GGR in 2024, a 23.9 percent increase against the previous year. The government has forecast GGR of 240 billion patacas (US$29.9 billion) for 2025, representing annual growth of 5.8 percent.
