The University of Macau (UM) has revised its macroeconomic forecast for the territory, and predicts the economy will grow by 16.8 percent this year.
That amounts to 415.3 billion patacas or 94.5 percent of the level in pre-pandemic 2019. It’s also 3.1 percent more year-on-year growth than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast, and a considerably higher prediction than the Macau Economic Association’s 10 percent.
The UM’s Centre for Macau Studies and Department of Economics initially forecast growth rates of between 8.3 percent and 21 percent, depending on the performance of the mainland Chinese tourist market.
Announcing its update on Friday, the university said “the latest economic data” indicated that the number of mainland tourists would return to 90 percent of 2019’s level this year.
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“The research team anticipates that the economic slowdown in mainland China will have a relatively small impact on Macao,” its statement read.
Researchers added that services exports would grow by 23.4 percent, personal consumption expenditure by 4 percent, consumer prices by 1.5 percent and median monthly earnings by 2.1 percent.
UM also forecast that the overall unemployment rate for 2024 would be 2.2 percent, with the unemployment rate of Macao residents expected to be 2.8 percent.
