Growth in gaming revenue is “likely to stay resilient” as Macao heads into 2026, according to a recent memo from Swiss investment bank UBS, cited by GGR Asia.
It forecast the industry’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow by 6 percent and 7 percent in next year, respectively. Growth was expected to be stronger at the start of 2026 before contracting to about 4 percent in the second half.
The “constructive” outlook was underpinned by the SAR’s tourism recovery, casinos’ widening marketing efforts, and a more diversified customer base, UBS said.
[See more: Growth, diversification and welfare: Macao’s top economic official outlines 2026 agenda]
The bank noted, however, that it had trimmed its EBITDA forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 to account for higher operating expenditure in the second half of this year.
Even so, margins are expected to remain broadly stable in 2026 – attributed to demand diversion away from satellite casinos and what UBS described as a relatively steady competitive environment.
UBS said operators with strong premium offerings were likely to continue capturing market share in what it characterised as a “premiumised demand environment,” a trend expected to be reinforced by upcoming property upgrades. These included the launch of new suite products by MGM and Wynn in early 2026, and Melco’s Countdown Hotel, scheduled to open by mid-2026.
