Macao’s gross gaming revenues (GGR) would only need to rise by 6 percent during the month of April to exceed 20 billion patacas ($2.5 billion). If realised, the monthly GGR figure would have crossed the threshold 11 times over the past 12 months, totalling 257 billion patacas ($32 billion), an amount representing 88 percent of 2019’s full-year gaming total, according to estimates calculated by The Bay (Macao News).
While the current demand backdrop remains favourable, CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang expects fewer positive surprises when the six concessionaires release their quarterly earnings next month. Amid a GGR backdrop of 14 percent growth, Kiang is forecasting sector earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to rise by a corresponding 7 percent to $2.1 billion as Macao’s integrated resorts continue to grapple with aggressive marketing campaigns alongside the rise of costlier premium players.
[See more: Morgan Stanley downgrades Macao gaming stocks as industry braces for revenue slowdown]
CLSA’s projected EBITDA margin of 25.3 percent is nearly 200 basis points below the 27.2 percent reported from a year earlier, with analysts now monitoring how the operators plan to maintain luck-neutral margins and increase performance yields amid the competition.
Tougher outlook lies ahead
The base effect should continue to support upbeat growth figures through the early summer period before gaming revenues taper off in the second half of the year. According to a Bloomberg survey conducted last month, analysts are projecting GGR growth within 5 to 8 percent for 2026, implying gaming revenues between 260 to 267 billion patacas ($33 billion to $34 billion), the highest annual amount since 2017.
“While we expect operational expenses to decline sequentially, increased visitation from premium patrons could drive rebates and reinvestment costs higher, offsetting any savings,” Kiang explains.
[See more: Gaming revenues topped 247 billion patacas in 2025. Here’s what to expect going into 2026]
Despite upbeat tourist numbers, the larger challenge lies in monetising Macao’s traffic flow. Total arrivals topped 7.8 million over the first two months of 2026, a 15 percent jump from last year, according to MGTO data. Although occupancy rates for four and five‑star hotels have also crept higher, average room rates have actually fallen between 1.7 and 2.7 percent, suggesting that some might be lowering prices to attract customers, Kiang writes.
Tailwinds from rising asset values have also reversed. Stock markets in Hong Kong and China have registered flat to negative year-to-date returns while rising commodity prices are eroding customer purchasing power. The jump in oil prices has also constrained China’s industrial profitability, a proxy that leads GGR trends by about six months.
[See more: How will the Middle Eastern oil crisis impact the Greater Bay Area?]
Macao gaming stocks currently trade at 8.8x EV/EBITDA on CLSA’s 2027 estimates, with Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China highlighted as the broker’s top picks. A stronger yuan remains a key earnings catalyst, Kiang says, as currency strength benefits mainland Chinese visitors, who accounted for 77 percent of arrivals during the first two months of this year, up 19 percent. However, Kiang also notes that a stronger yuan could also act as a headwind for industrial producers, particularly for exporters.
