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China’s overall population has fallen but its birth rate has slowly risen

Demographers say the rising birth rate is largely due to 2023’s bumper crop of weddings – the result of Covid-19 postponements
  • However, 2024 saw the mainland’s population continue its downward trend as it clocked a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 million people

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UPDATED: 21 Jan 2025, 9:30 am

China’s population fell for the fourth year in a row in 2024, coming in at 1.408 billion people according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 million, Reuters reports.

Nevertheless, China’s birth rate is finally going up after years of decline. The rate has climbed from 6.39 births per 1,000 people in 2023 to 6.77 per 1,000 people in 2024. The total number of births amounted to 9.54 million last year, compared with 9.02 million the year prior.

Demographers told Reuters that a 12.4 percent uplift in marriages in 2023 likely accounted for the rise in last year’s birth rate. That trend arose due to the many nuptials postponed during the Covid-19 pandemic. The demographers predicted that the country’s birth rate would fall again this year.

[See more: Macao’s birth rate continues its steady decline]

The authorities, however, have launched a number of measures to keep it rising. Last month, they urged tertiary education institutions to integrate marriage and so-called “love education” into curriculums to encourage positive views on child-rearing. The State Council has also pushed local governments to invest in campaigns advocating for traditional family values, as well as improving maternity and childcare benefits.

China’s aging population is economically problematic, with the rising costs of supporting the elderly likely to put extra pressure on already indebted local governments. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences has said the country’s pension system could run out of funds by 2035 without significant reforms.

Macao’s own government is also striving to boost the SAR’s birth rate, which dropped from 11 births per 1,000 people in 2016 to 5.5 per 1,000 in 2023 – and continues to fall. A new medical-assisted reproduction subsidy programme was launched on 1 December, while the Social Welfare Bureau has been publishing controversial videos promulgating the message that “bearing and raising children adds to one’s happiness.”

UPDATED: 21 Jan 2025, 9:30 am

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