Forecasters at the University of Macau (UM) have significantly lowered expectations for local GDP growth this year, in the wake of mainland China’s economic slowdown.
Researchers say GDP growth will now reach 12.1 percent – less than 90 percent of the level recorded for pre-pandemic 2019 and equivalent to 399.3 billion patacas (US$49.9 billion). This compares with a UM forecast made last December, which envisaged local GDP growth surging by as much as 21 percent.
The growth of services exports is projected at 15.3 percent, down from the maximum of 26.7 percent originally forecast, while the local government’s revenue is predicted at 112.2 billion patacas (US$14 billion) – slightly more than the earlier forecast high of 109.6 billion (US$13.7 billion).
[See more: Direct investment in Macao fell by over 57 percent in 2023]
Among other indicators, private consumption expenditure is anticipated to rise by 5.8 percent (compared to a maximum of 5.3 percent in last December’s forecast), with gross fixed capital formation forecast to grow by 7.7 percent (down from the high of 11.2 percent in the earlier prediction).
The inflation rate is projected to be 1.3 percent, with the consumer price index expected to rise by 0.9 percent (both lower than earlier forecasts).
Median monthly employment earnings are predicted to increase by 2.8 percent (rather lower than the 5.6 percent originally thought), while the overall unemployment rate is expected to be 1.9 percent and the unemployment rate, excluding migrant workers, is projected to be 2.5 percent – roughly the same as previous estimates.
