A new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) tempers projections of “resilient economic growth” this year with warnings of significant risk factors and stalled progress.
The global unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at around 4.9 percent, according to data compiled for the Employment and Social Trends 2026 report, equivalent to some 186 million people out of work. Low-income countries are expected to see the biggest gains with 3.1-percent job growth compared to just 0.5 percent in upper middle-income countries, where ageing populations limit how many people can enter the labour force or remain in work.
Having a job doesn’t guarantee a living wage, though. More than 284 million workers globally lived in extreme poverty last year, subsisting on less than US$3 a day, and nearly 68 percent of workers in low-income countries live in extreme or moderate poverty. Informal work is pervasive in low (90.2%), lower-middle (83.4%) and even upper-middle-income (53%) countries, limiting access to social protection, rights at work and job security for around 2.1 billion workers worldwide.
The report also outlined the concerning global job situation for young people and stalled progress on gender equality, with women around 24-percent less likely than men to participate in the labour force.
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Progress in labour market conditions for young people stagnated in 2025, as the global youth unemployment rate – and the share of young people not in employment, education or training – both ticked up slightly, to 12.4 percent and 20 percent respectively. While low-income countries struggle to create enough decent jobs for their large youth cohorts, the report notes, young people in high-income countries may face more difficulty finding work due to AI and automation.
Growing global trade uncertainty is also hurting job growth and quality. Nearly half a billion people worldwide depend on trade, more than half of them in Asia and the Pacific. According to ILO modelling, even a moderate rise in trade uncertainty could lower real wages for workers across all sectors, with the biggest hits expected in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Europe.
ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngo responded to the report with calls for coordinated action and stronger institutions to advance decent work and social justice, particularly in the hard-hit poorer economies.
“Unless governments, employers, and workers act together to harness technology responsibly and expand quality job opportunities for women and youth – through coherent and coordinated institutional responses – decent work deficits will persist and social cohesion will be at risk,” he said.
