Fitch Ratings has affirmed Macao’s long-term issuer default rating at ‘AA’ with a ‘stable’ outlook, yet forecast a deceleration in the city’s economic growth over the next two years. The prediction was reported in multiple casino news outlets.
The rating agency expects Macao’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 4 per cent in 2026, primarily due to weakening economic conditions on the Chinese mainland, which are increasingly expected to weigh on the sentiment and spending of visiting tourists.
This follows a revised forecast for 2025, with GDP now projected to grow by 4.6 per cent, a significant drop from the 6.9 per cent initially estimated in March. The predicted slowdown comes despite a strong 2024, which saw the city’s GDP rise by 8.8 per cent, largely driven by a 21.8 per cent increase in casino-related tourist spending.
Fitch suggested that the impact of softer mainland demand will be partly offset by “favourable visa policies, ongoing non-gaming investments, and improvements in tourism infrastructure.” Furthermore, the agency noted that Macao’s 2026 Policy Address emphasises economic diversification and deeper cooperation with Hengqin to bolster long-term development.
[See more: Macao pledges to accelerate financial sector for economic diversification]
The rating agency expects the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to recover to roughly 88 per cent of its 2019 level by the end of 2025.
Cumulative GGR for the first 11 months of this year reached 226.52 billion patacas (US$28.32 billion), an 8.6 per cent increase year-on-year. This places Macao within reach of the government’s full-year target of 228 billion patacas (US$28.5 billion). Looking ahead, the Macao government’s fiscal budget plan forecasts the city’s GGR will reach 236 billion patacas (US$29 billion) for the full year 2026.
The institution also expects Macao to continue building up substantial fiscal buffers, projecting a fiscal surplus in 2026, supported by solid gaming tax receipts. Gaming taxes accounted for 83.3 per cent of public revenue in the first 10 months of 2024.
The city’s financial reserves reached 658.7 billion patacas (US$81.37 billion) at the end of September, a figure sufficient to cover roughly six years of government expenditure.
