An updated forecast from Brazil’s National Supply Company (known by the Portuguese acronym CONAB) projects a record 336.1 million tonnes for the country’s 2024 to 2025 grain and fibre harvest.
This represents a 3.2-million-tonne increase from its May projections and, if confirmed, will mark a 13-percent increase from the previous season, adding 38.6 million tonnes, according to the English language online edition of Brazil’s leading economic and financial newspaper Valor.
CONAB attributes the revision to improved yields, expected to increase by 10 percent on average to 4.1 tonnes per hectare, and a 2.3-percent increase in planted area, now estimated at 81.8 million hectares. CONAB, a public company under Brazil’s agricultural ministry, publishes new forecasts on a monthly basis, updating its estimates based on surveys of Brazilian farmers.
“Brazil is set to deliver its largest grain harvest ever, led by soybeans and corn, which have already been fully harvested,” CONAB president Edegar Pretto told Valor.
Soybeans, Brazil’s leading agricultural export, are expected to hit a record 169.6 million tonnes for the current harvest, up 1.3 million tonnes from the last projection and 21.9 million tonnes from the previous season, a 15-percent increase year over year.
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Favourable weather conditions across key producing regions are the main driver of this growth, according to CONAB. Corn yields are also expected to see a double-digit increase over last season, up 11 percent to 128.3 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes above the May projection.
The second corn crop, the largest of the three annual plantings, is expected to reach 101 million tonnes, a 12.2-percent increase from last season. Harvesting has already begun across the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Tocantins and Maranhão. CONAB again cites favourable weather as a main driver, along with efficient farm management.
New forecasting for rice improved slightly over May to hit 12.15 million tonnes, a 14.9-percent increase from the previous season, largely due to expanded planting and better weather, particularly in Brazil’s top producing state, Rio Grande do Sul, where harvesting is nearly complete. A statement from CONAB said it will begin rice purchases this month, marking the first time in 14 years that the company will hold stockpiles of the staple crop.
Beans stand out as the only crop to see setbacks, dropping 60,000 tonnes from the May projection to 3.17 million tonnes, a 0.8-percent decrease from last season. Conab noted that the output remains sufficient to meet domestic demand. Cultivated in three cycles throughout the year, the first crop has already been harvested, totalling 1.1 million tonnes while the second is currently maturing, with harvesting nearing completion in Paraná and Minas Gerais. The third crop is already being planted.
Cotton lint production is projected to increase 5.7 percent to 3.8 million tonnes. A 7.1-percent increase in planted area has helped mitigate the lower yields caused by irregular rainfall.
