The average sea level in Macao toward the end of the century could be 64 centimetres higher than it is now, posing implications for many low-lying parts of the city that are already susceptible to flooding.
According to a statement from the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (known by its Portuguese initials SMG), the significant rise in sea level can be expected between 2081 and 2100 and is based on the latest models developed by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC has laid out five possible scenarios for climate change, based on whether the emission of greenhouse gases is very low, low, intermediate, high or very high.
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Under the intermediate scenario, local sea-levels could be anywhere from 31 to 64 centimetres higher than they are now. In the same scenario, the city’s annual rainfall and annual maximum daily precipitation will increase by an estimated 8.3 percent and 5.8 percent respectively in the period between 2041 and 2060, compared to averages recorded between 1995 and 2014.
If the very high scenario occurs, precipitation could rise by as much as 30 percent, the bureau warned.
In general, Macao can also be expected to be affected by astronomical tides and storm surges with increasing frequency, with more extreme rainstorms and other severe weather events hitting the city.
