Analysts expect gross gaming revenue (GGR) to stay flat in April, though recent actions against illegal money changers could result in a slight short-term contraction, Inside Asian Gaming (IAG) reports.
Seaport Research Partners has forecast a decline of 0.1 percent year-on-year and 5.8 percent month-on-month in GGR for this month – following March’s subdued performance.
Last week, IAG reported that dozens of people, suspected of being part of a criminal illegal currency exchange organisation operating through Macao pawn and jewellery shops, had been arrested. More than HK$18 million (US$2.25 million) in cash and a small amount of chips were seized by police during raids on 25 March.
Earlier this week, Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky described the organisation as an “egregious money movement operation well beyond what is normally allowed at pawn shops.”
[See more: Nearly 850 people have been arrested so far in the currency exchange crackdown]
In a note cited by IAG, Umansky said he didn’t expect this one-off crackdown to have a major impact on GGR in the long-run. However, he noted that it could cause short-term demand softness as gamblers may avoid pawnshops in the immediate aftermath.
Beijing ordered a crackdown on illegal money exchanges in Macao in May 2024, which was followed by a tightening of laws regarding the practice. Hundreds of people have since been arrested for crimes such as operating illicit money exchanges and underground banks, organising illegal border crossings for mainland residents, scams and the wrongful detainment of gamblers.
Seaport’s 2025 GGR forecast remains at 6.5 percent growth in spite of last week’s arrests.
“Growth should be driven by an increase in marketing efforts by operators and consumer trends in China,” Umansky said. “China stimulus and policy measures are likely to help China’s economy and improve consumer confidence later this year.”
