Seaport Research Partners has upped its gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth forecast for Macao to 9 percent for the second half of 2025, and 7 percent for the full year, multiple casino media outlets report.
Back in April, Seaport dramatically cut its 2025 growth forecast for Macao’s gaming industry from 6.5 percent down to 3 percent – following an unexpectedly poor first quarter that saw GGR increase by less than 1 percent compared with the same period last year.
However, casino earnings “reaccelerated” in May and June, according to Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky on Monday. “While 2025 had started softly in Macao, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half is bearing fruit, and we continue to see Macao as a secular long-term growth market,” he said.
[See more: Mass market games account for more than 76 percent of second quarter GGR]
In June, the government downgraded its full-year GGR forecast from 240 billion patacas (US$28.8 billion) to 228 billion patacas (US$28.2 billion). Given the six concessionaires earned a collective 226.8 billion patacas (US$28.05 billion) in 2024, the change reflects growth shifting from 5.8 percent to just 0.5 percent.
Umansky noted that headwinds remained around China’s macroeconomic situation, but were “likely outweighed by improving sentiment and stimulus.” Mainland China is by far Macao’s biggest source of punters.
Longer term, Seaport forecast 7 percent year-on-year growth in GGR for 2026 and 2027.
