Analysts at JP Morgan believe Macao’s casinos likely reached a collective daily run-rate of one billion patacas in gross gaming revenue (GGR) at the peak of Lunar New Year, GGR Asia reports. If so, it will be the first time that target has been hit in the past four years.
Analysts from the investment bank, Mufan Shi and Selina Li, said their “back-of-the-envelope calculation” suggested days four to seven (13-16 February) of the recent holiday exceeded the billion mark.
They noted that the last lengthy holiday – around the National Day celebrations in October 2023 – saw a daily run-rate of around 900 million patacas, the highest to date since the pandemic began in 2020.
Citigroup, meanwhile, has predicted GGR of 900 million patacas per day from 12 to 17 February.
[See more: Gross gaming revenue will grow by over 20 percent in 2024: Deutsche Bank]
Both banks agree that the first 18 days of February saw the casinos generate 12.5 billion patacas in GGR, equating to 694 million patacas per day. That figure was 75 percent of the total for the same period in 2019.
JP Morgan said it expected the full month’s GGR to reach 19 billion patacas (655 million per day), while Citigroup thought it would reach a slightly higher 19.5 billion. In January, GGR totalled 19.3 billion patacas.
The government has forecast full-year GGR for 2024 at 216 billion patacas – an 18 percent increase on last year. However, various international banks have predicted the final sum will fall between 221 and 234 billion patacas.
The most conservative estimate on the table is 210.5 billion patacas, coming from a local industry expert.
