Investment banking firm Jefferies has revised its estimate for Macao’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, lowering it by 2 percent to 240 million patacas (US$30 billion).
According to industry media outlets, this revision – which brings the annual GGR in line with the government’s traditionally conservative forecast – was made in response to the poorer than expected monthly revenues reported by Macao’s casino operators in January and February.
“January-February industry GGRs were flat, and the CNY [Chinese New Year] holiday has shown a longer and stronger tail effect versus previous years,” Jefferies analysts said in their statement on Friday.
Government data shows that January’s GGR totalled 18.25 billion patacas (US$2.28 billion), marking a slight growth of around 0.29 percent in comparison to December 2024. Meanwhile, revenue in February hit 19.74 billion patacas (US$2.47 billion), an increase of 6.8 percent against January.
Despite lowering its 2025 GGR forecast, the investment bank noted that its estimate was still 2 percent above the annual GGR total put forward by the market and represented a jump of 5.8 percent against 2024’s GGR of 226.8 billion patacas (US$28.1 billion).
[See more: Analysts differ on GGR predictions for Macao following February’s jump]
Jefferies analysts said that the introduction of multiple-entry permits for Zhuhai residents at the beginning of this year, and the launch of multiple-entry Hengqin-Macao permits for tour groups in May 2024, could help drive Macao’s visitation rate and mass gaming revenue.
Other analyst firms have offered their GGR forecasts for this year, including Seaport Research Partners, which predicted a 6.5 percent year-on-year increase, and JP Morgan Securities, which put the growth rate between 2 and 3 percent.
As for Macao’s GGR between March and December, Jefferies forecast a year-on-year growth of 6.9 percent, an estimate that is higher than the 4.8 percent prediction from the market.
Looking into the distant future, the investment banking company expects the SAR’s GGR to rise by 5.4 percent in 2026, reaching a total of 253 billion patacas (US$31.64 billion). By 2027, Macao’s gaming revenue is predicted to grow 5.1 percent, hitting 266 billion patacas (US$33.26 billion).
Casino industry expert David Bonnet, however, has raised the question of whether or not Macao’s GGR has peaked. In an opinion piece last month for Inside Asian Gaming, he mentioned some of the factors that were dragging down the city’s casino earnings, including the local crackdown on junkets and illegal money exchanges, as well as the central government’s preoccupation with curbing capital flight.
