Macao’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise by 7.7 percent year-on-year, according to macroeconomic predictions for 2025 published yesterday by the University of Macau (UM).
The city’s service exports and private consumption expenditure are expected to increase by 7.6 percent and 3.1 percent respectively, say researchers.
The city’s inflation rate is meanwhile anticipated to hit 1.1 percent, while the general unemployment figure (which combines rates for both local and migrant workers), and the local jobless rate, are forecast to reach 1.8 percent and 2.3 percent respectively.
As for revenue, the SAR government is anticipated to collect 111.8 billion patacas.
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In its assessment of Macao’s economic performance last year, UM noted that visitor arrivals in the first quarter of 2024 grew considerably by almost 80 percent compared to 2023. However, the number began to slacken over the next three quarters, with year-on-year increases of only 17.1 percent in the second quarter, followed by 11.1 percent in the third.
Local demand grew, with the university pointing out that private consumption expenditure totalled nearly 29 billion patacas in the third quarter of last year, a year-on-year jump of almost 2 percent. Inflation meanwhile remained steady, hitting only 0.8 percent during the first eleven months of 2024.
As for jobs, UM researchers remarked that “the labour market remained tight,” pointing out that the general unemployment figure in the second and third quarter of 2024 stood at 1.7 percent.
UM warned that Macao’s economy faced a number of uncertainties going forward. Some of these included mainland China’s sluggish economy, which could be worsened by future trade disputes with the US.
